Communicating Uncertainty

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Communicating Uncertainty

This quiz is used to see if students have grasped the idea of communicating uncertainty in science writing.

  • Read the following summary of some research in which you must communicate the degree of uncertainty in your results.

    “We have assessed the risk of a serious volcanic eruption affecting people living in the nearest town and believe there is a 1 in 151,091 chance that such an eruption will occur in the next week, a 1 in 106 chance in the next 10 years and is a 1 in 12 chance that it will happen in the next 50 years.”

    Now decide whether you can simplify the three chances/likelihoods (bolded above) without affecting their accuracy too much (to make this easier for people to interpret). Choose the most suitable simplification for each of these in questions 1, 2 and 3 (1 mark each), or select the original version if there is a good reason why you can’t simplify it without losing accuracy.
  • Now read the following four descriptions of the risk facing town residents (A, B, C and D below), and rank these in order from best to worst. Hint: Remember the importance of avoiding framing bias.

    A: Realistically, there is no chance that the volcano will erupt in the next week.
    B: It is a bit more likely that the volcano will erupt by 2065 than by 2025.
    C: It is very unlikely that the volcano will erupt in the next 50 years.
    D: There is an absolutely tiny chance that the volcano will erupt in the next week.

    For Questions 4, 5, 6 and 7 (1 mark each) simply input the number that indicates your ranking of this statement (1 = best, 2 = second best, 3 = second worst, 4 = worst).
  • Please enter a number from 1 to 4.
  • Please enter a number from 1 to 4.
  • Please enter a number from 1 to 4.